陈冠行 Kingston Business Decision Models I COMM 163
- Student: 陈冠行，大一，Commerce专业，Business Decision Models I COMM 163
- Tutor: Stanley
Practice
Syllabus
Assessment
Schedule
0 - Course Overview & Spreadsheets
Analytics
Business Decision Models
- BDMs: quantitative models that help businesses make the best possible decisions
- Model: a simplified representation of a real-world business problem or
system
- Allows us to analyze how different factors interact, and ultimately make the best decision
- Input data for the models usually comes from descriptive or predictive analytics
Explanation
商业决策模型（Business Decision Models, BDMs）的核心是利用定量模型帮助企业做出最佳决策。它将复杂的现实商业问题简化为模型，以便分析不同因素的互动并预测结果。
- 数学模型（Mathematical Models / Regression）（左上图）
- 含义：展示变量之间的定量关系，如销售额（$Sales）与广告投入（$Advertising）的线性方程 Y = b_0 + b_1X。通过数据拟合来预测趋势和效果。
- 决策表与决策树（Decision Tables & Decision Trees）（左下图）
- 含义：用于风险/不确定性环境下的决策。通过节点（如“建大厂”、“建小厂”）和概率分布（如市场好坏各 50%）计算期望货币价值（EMV），以此选择收益最大或风险最小的方案。
- 线性规划模型（Linear Programming models）（右下图）
- 含义：用于资源优化配置。在满足特定约束条件（Subject to）下，求解目标函数（Maximize/Minimize，如最大化利润 $P$ 或最小化成本）的最佳方案。
- 蒙特卡洛模拟（Simulations）（右上图）
- 含义：通过计算机模拟数千次不确定性场景，生成结果的概率分布直方图（如收益分布），用于评估极端风险和不确定性。
Benefits of BDMs
- Provides structure for a decision problem
- Breaks problem into simple parts
- Makes assumptions visible
- Allows “what if” analysis
- Better decisions
- Data-driven and objective
- Thorough investigation of alternatives
- Prediction of outcomes
- Identification of optimal solutions
Course Overview
Spreadsheets
Formatting best practices
No hardcoding
- 重点：所有假设都放进单独单元格，公式只引用单元格。
- 好处：改一个数就能联动全表，模型可维护、可复用。
Separate inputs, calculations, and outputs
- 重点：输入区、计算区、结果区各归各位，别混在一起。
- 好处：别人（包括未来的你）能秒懂模型结构。
Color cells
- 重点：输入和输出上色，计算区保持白色。
- 好处：视觉上一眼识别哪里可改、哪里是结果。
Other Excel tips
Calling functions
- 重点：= + 函数名 + 参数；不会就用 Insert Function。
- 好处：函数是现成工具，别手动算，既快又准。
Relative vs. absolute cell references
- 重点：相对引用复制时引用会跟着移动；绝对引用用 $ 锁住行列，复制时不变。
- 好处：要固定引用某个单元格就用绝对引用，不然容易算错。
Auditing Excel models
- 重点：用 Trace Precedents / Dependents 查看谁影响谁。
- 好处：快速排错，看懂复杂模型的数据流向。
Freezing panes
- 重点：固定标题行/列，滚动时始终可见。
- 好处：大表阅读不出错，表头不丢失。
1 - Decision Analysis
Motivation
Thompson Lumber Company
- Company thinking about launching a new product: storage sheds
- Company considering three alternatives
- Constructing a large plant to manufacture the storage sheds
- Constructing a small plant to manufacture the storage sheds
- Doing nothing (don’t launch the storage sheds)
- Company doesn’t know yet if customers will like the sheds
- Expected profits are as follows:
Definition
An analytic and systematic approach to decision making
Motivations for Decision Analysis
- Make better decisions!
- More profitable, better resource allocation, lower costs…
- Psychological comfort:
- “Did I do the right thing?”
- Communicating
- Helping others understand the nature of the choices and uncertainty
- Advocacy
- Convincing others that you are right
- Generating new solutions
- Decomposing a decision problem and recombining may reveal new opportunitiesfor resolution
Good Outcome = Good Decision?
- Bob offers you a $20 bet:
- You flip a coin 5 times
- You win if all five are heads
- Bob wins otherwise
- You take the bet
- You win! You get $20!
- That’s a good outcome. Was it a good decision?